A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
